- Posted March 9, 2026
Small Drop In Measles Vaccinations Tied to Big Jump In Cases
Even a slight decrease in measles vaccinations could spark a seven-fold increase in new cases, a new report says.
Just a 1% annual drop in the rate of MMR (measles/mumps/rubella) childhood jabs could prompt 17,000 measles cases, 4,000 hospitalizations and 36 preventable deaths each year, concludes a new report from the Common Health Coalition.
That 1% drop in vaccinations would also cost the U.S. an extra $1.5 billion a year between now and 2030 in related health care costs, according to the report.
“Vaccination is one of the most powerful investments we can make for the health of our children, but when we fail to maintain high vaccination rates, we all pay the price,” Dr. Dave Chokshi, chair of the Common Health Coalition, said in a news release.
Recent major measles outbreaks in South Carolina, Utah, Arizona and Texas have highlighted the importance of vaccination.
So far in 2026 there have been 1,281 reported cases of measles and 12 new outbreaks affecting 31 states, according to the US. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC).
And last week federal officials reported a measles outbreak at the nation’s largest ICE detention facility, a tent city in El Paso, Texas. At least 14 cases have been confirmed.
Measles is extremely contagious, the CDC says. If one person has it, up to 9 out of 10 people situated nearby will also become infected if they aren’t vaccinated.
For the new report, researchers at Yale School of Public Health assessed county-level MMR vaccination coverage, and then projected what might happen were that coverage to decline by just 1% a year from now to 2030.
“A 5% reduction in MMR vaccine coverage over the next five years is highly plausible given current trends, as vaccine coverage has already fallen by roughly 2.5-3 percentage points since 2020 prior to recent policy changes,” the report says.
“This scenario would place coverage at roughly 87.5% nationally, 7.5 percentage points below the 95% threshold widely recognized as required to sustain herd immunity due to high transmissibility,” the researchers added.
Under that scenario, measles cases and hospitalizations will rise dramatically, the researchers said. There would be more than 17,000 cases annually, an increase of more than 15,000.
As well, there would be an estimated 4,000 extra hospitalizations annually, an increase of more than 3,000, according to the report.
“Our analysis shows that highly contagious diseases like measles exploit even small gaps in immunity, leading to cascading infections and compounding costs for health systems, communities, and families,” Alison Galvani, director of the Center for Infectious Disease Modeling and Analysis at Yale School of Public Health, said in a news release.
As a result, the U.S. would need to spend $41 million a year to treat these cases and $947 million for the public health response to measles outbreaks, researchers project. There also would be more than $510 million in lost productivity and missed work.
“What may appear to be a modest one-percent annual decline in immunization coverage can produce outsized consequences,” Galvani said. “The projections in this report reflect how quickly preventable risk can escalate, how maintaining high coverage can avert both human suffering and economic burdens.”
Researchers recommended a set of actions that could help boost vaccination rates, including:
Making sure that insurers continue to fully cover vaccinations without any cost to families.
Maintaining or strengthening school-entry immunization requirements.
Build confidence in vaccines through public messaging.
Improve vaccine access through regional immunization coalitions.
“Declining coverage carries real consequences: families facing avoidable hospitalizations, employers absorbing lost work, public health departments stretched too thin to respond, and health care systems forced to shoulder the burden of emergency response,” Chokshi said. “Yet these human and economic consequences can be prevented by strong leadership and partnership across health sectors.”
More information
The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has more about measles.
SOURCE: Common Health Coalition, news release, Feb. 26, 2026
